The breakouts and new directions in the words and wisdom of venture capitalist Vinod Khosla.
After taking a look at the various new startups out there, he's condensed the productive, collaborative, and social web trends of tomorrow into 12 basic categories:
1. Data Reduction or Filters
2. Big data or Analytics
3. Emotional Touchstones
4. Education 2.0
5. TV 2.0
6. Social Next
7. Interest-based networks
8. Health 2.0
9. Internet of Things/Universal ID/NFC/Smart sensors
10. Personal Collaborative Publishing
11. Utility Apps
12. Marketplaces & Disintermediation
How did he arrive at his categories, or potential pools to fish in? He assessed for ingenuity, novelty, reinterpretation, and the potential for tangible effect. Derivation was okay if the new result, mood, or direction was substantially different.
"A new category to me means doing something old differently enough to have it become a large business or have substantial impact among users.
AirBnB and Instagram would be examples of companies whose categories existed prior to their entry, but they are meaningfully different. Likewise, LinkedIn was not the first professional social network but it had substantial new impact and business potential."
Additionally, Khosla touts the impetus of the mobile/tablet as a driving force behind much of today's consumer access and entrepreneurial innovation:
"I chose not to define mobile or tablets as a category but it clearly is a major driving force behind much of this innovation; mobile is the theme that underlies the concept of “post-PC” or “always/everywhere.” The emergence of new languages like HTML5 (which I suspect will soon turn into new, hopefully cross-platform standards through the addition of traditional operating system services like inter-process communication) will enable more innovation, which will sell more devices, and drive even more innovation. Other capabilities like sensors around always/everywhere devices will enable health, the Internet of things and other functions. Compasses, GPS sensors, accelerometers, touch interfaces, voice, and image capture all open the door for rich new experiences. I consider all of these enablers rather than categories by themselves."
Khosla also took a few moments to explain what he didn't include.
"I ignored areas like cloud computing, because they are not new anymore (though still a source of significant innovation and a source of services that can be drivers of innovation)."
"I also did not focus on e-commerce given its already substantial popularity."
Other possible big gainers in the constantly-evolving business incubator that is the Internet:
"Then there are payments; I think it is possible that we are seeing just the tip of the iceberg in a potential rethink on payments."
"Makers are enthusiasts who hack and modify the world around them in interesting and whimsical ways... the Maker movement has laid the groundwork for what will be the next industrial revolution based around personalized fabrication from one-off runs with 3-D printers to at-scale manufacturing. I am not yet sure that this will be a category in the next 2-3 years, but it will happen sometime. "
Here are some areas with which we already intersect (yay) at work:
"Facebook has validated another category I haven’t mentioned, “Timeline”, and others are looking at “health timelines.” This is a feature that will show up everywhere and, to me, is more of a tool than an application. There will also be technology services like Singly and Dropbox that allow applications with new utility and features to be built. NFC may also just end up as a basic service technology, but I listed it above in the hope that it enables a new class of applications. There are probably other universal features that will initially look like applications."
http://techcrunch.com/2012/02/19/unhyped-internet-and-mobile/
It's also constructive to read the comments to see what others think of his hypotheses, and for other category suggestions and examples. There's much here that could be examined or used by us, or at least kept in mind as we move forward.
